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Featured Analysis
Updated April 17, 2026
10-year Treasury yield minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation
as of 2026-04-15
10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield
30-year mortgage rate minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation
as of 2026-04-16
Typical home price divided by median household income
as of 2026-01-01
Monthly rent compared to total monthly cost of owning (P&I + taxes + insurance + maintenance)
3-month annualized employment growth across 84 detailed industries
as of 2026-03-01
A data-driven look at housing affordability, mortgage costs, and metro-level price-to-rent ratios.
Updated Apr 17, 2026
National layoff trends and employment momentum across 33 industries.
Per-industry employment momentum and quadrant status across 26 CES industries.
30-year mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield
10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year breakeven inflation
Estimated monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase
Mortgage payment as a percentage of median monthly household income
Home price divided by annual rent — above 20x suggests renting is more favorable
Home value divided by annual rent across 700+ metros — above 20x suggests renting is more favorable
as of 2026-03-31
Smoothed U.S. recession probability from dynamic-factor markov-switching model
as of 2026-02-01
Month-over-month change in total nonfarm employment
Total nonfarm job openings (JOLTS)
Total nonfarm layoffs and discharge rate (JOLTS)
Total nonfarm quits rate (JOLTS)
3-month annualized employment growth across major sectors
3-month annualized growth: private sector vs government
3-month annualized growth: goods-producing vs services-providing
3-month annualized employment growth across 51 states
3-month annualized employment growth in tech sub-industries
3-month annualized employment growth in recession-sensitive industries