All Metrics
Mortgage Spread
30-year mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield
as of 2026-10-15
Real 10-Year Yield
10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year breakeven inflation
as of 2026-10-16
Recession Probability
Smoothed U.S. recession probability from dynamic-factor markov-switching model
as of 2026-08-01
Yield Curve Slope
10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield
as of 2026-10-16
Real 10Y Yield (CPI Proxy)
10-year Treasury yield minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation
as of 2026-10-16
Real Mortgage Rate
30-year mortgage rate minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation
as of 2026-10-15
Mortgage Payment Index
Estimated monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase
as of 2026-07-01
Home Price vs Income
Typical home price divided by median household income
as of 2026-07-01
Housing Affordability
Mortgage payment as a percentage of median monthly household income
as of 2026-07-01
Home Price-to-Rent Ratio
Home price divided by annual rent — above 20x suggests renting is more favorable
as of 2026-07-01
Home Price-to-Rent Ratio (Zillow)
Home value divided by annual rent across 700+ metros — above 20x suggests renting is more favorable
as of 2026-09-30
Rent vs. Total Cost of Ownership
Monthly rent compared to total monthly cost of owning (P&I + taxes + insurance + maintenance)
as of 2026-07-01
Employment Momentum by Sector
3-month annualized employment growth across major sectors
as of 2026-09-01
Monthly Job Change
Month-over-month change in total nonfarm employment
as of 2026-09-01
Private vs Government Employment
3-month annualized growth: private sector vs government
as of 2026-09-01
Goods vs Services Employment
3-month annualized growth: goods-producing vs services-providing
as of 2026-09-01
State Employment Momentum
3-month annualized employment growth across 51 states
as of 2026-08-01
Tech Industry Employment Momentum
3-month annualized employment growth in tech sub-industries
as of 2026-09-01
Cyclical Industry Employment Momentum
3-month annualized employment growth in recession-sensitive industries
as of 2026-09-01
Job Openings
Total nonfarm job openings (JOLTS)
as of 2026-08-01
Layoffs & Discharges
Total nonfarm layoffs and discharge rate (JOLTS)
as of 2026-08-01
Quits Rate
Total nonfarm quits rate (JOLTS)
as of 2026-08-01
Industry Employment Momentum
3-month annualized employment growth across 84 detailed industries
as of 2026-09-01
Total Nonfarm Employment
Total U.S. nonfarm employment level
as of 2026-09-01