Methodology
Data Sources
Data sources include the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED® database. All time series are fetched via the FRED API and processed into derived metrics by our data pipeline.
Metrics Overview
Mortgage Spread
Calculated as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRED series MORTGAGE30US) minus the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (DGS10). The mortgage rate is reported weekly; Treasury yields are daily. We align by matching each weekly mortgage observation to the most recent available Treasury yield on or before that date.
Real 10-Year Yield
Calculated as the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (DGS10) minus the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE). Both series are daily and are joined on matching dates.
Recession Probability
Uses the smoothed U.S. recession probability series (RECPROUSM156N) produced by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger using a dynamic-factor markov-switching model. Values represent the probability (0–100%) that the U.S. economy is in recession.
Yield Curve Slope
The 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) minus the 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2). A positive value indicates a normal yield curve; a negative value (inversion) has historically preceded recessions. Both series are daily and joined on matching dates.
Real 10Y Yield (CPI Proxy)
The 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation (CPIAUCSL). Unlike the breakeven-based Real 10-Year Yield, this proxy uses realized consumer price inflation rather than market-implied expectations. CPI is monthly; we carry the most recent value forward to daily Treasury dates.
Real Mortgage Rate
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation (CPIAUCSL). This measures the real borrowing cost for homebuyers after accounting for inflation. Mortgage rates are weekly; CPI is monthly and carried forward.
Mortgage Payment Index
Estimated monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase. Uses the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) scaled to a $400,000 base home price, with 20% down payment and the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US). Standard amortization formula over 360 months.
Home Price vs Income
Typical home price divided by median household income. Home prices use the Case-Shiller index (CSUSHPINSA) anchored to $400,000. Median income (MEHOINUSA646N) is annual; the last known value is carried forward for subsequent months until a new observation is available.
Housing Affordability
Monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of median gross monthly household income. Combines Case-Shiller home prices (CSUSHPINSA), 30-year mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US), and median household income (MEHOINUSA646N). A value above 30% is generally considered unaffordable by conventional lending standards.
Rent vs Buy Breakeven
Estimated years until buying a home breaks even compared to renting. Compares the total cost of owning (mortgage payment plus 2% annual tax/insurance/maintenance) against rent levels derived from the shelter CPI (CUSR0000SEHA) anchored to $2,000/month. The breakeven is calculated as the down payment divided by the monthly cost difference, clamped to 0–50 years.
Percentiles
Percentile rankings are computed over the full available history of each metric. A percentile of 0.90 means the current value is higher than 90% of all historical observations.
Deltas (1W / 1M Change)
Each metric displays 1-week and 1-month changes. These are computed by finding the observation closest to 7 and 30 days before the latest value (within a 5-day tolerance window). If no observation falls within the tolerance, the delta is not shown.
Update Frequency
Data is refreshed on a scheduled basis. All metrics are pre-computed and served as static JSON files — no calculations happen at page load time.