Recession Probability
Smoothed U.S. recession probability from dynamic-factor markov-switching model
0.6%72nd percentile
1M: ↑ 0.4%
As of 2026-08-01 · Updated October 20, 2026
What it means
- A statistical estimate of the probability that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, derived from a model that tracks the major monthly economic indicators (employment, income, production, sales).
- Values near zero suggest expansion. Readings above 50% have historically coincided with periods later officially dated as recessions by the NBER.
- Note that this is a model output published with a lag, not an official recession call. The NBER — the body that officially dates U.S. recessions — typically only confirms a recession many months after it starts.