How Is the Labor Market?

National layoffs and discharges are running at 1.1% per month, placing them at the 20th percentile of all readings since 2000. Layoffs are historically low — involuntary separations at this level have typically coincided with tight labor markets and strong demand for workers.

At this level, involuntary separations are well below long-run norms. Historically, readings like this have accompanied periods of broad labor market resilience.

There are +6882K job openings nationally, at the 74th percentile. Job openings are in a moderate range. Demand for workers exists but is not at the elevated levels seen during peak recovery periods.

The openings-to-unemployed ratio is in a moderate range — historically consistent with neither unusually strong nor unusually weak worker bargaining power.

The quits rate is 1.9%, at the 40th percentile. A higher quits rate has historically corresponded with periods of worker confidence — when voluntary departures rise, it typically reflects perceived availability of better opportunities.

The quits rate is in a normal range — neither unusually high nor unusually low relative to historical norms.

Of the 84 tracked industries, 38 are expanding and 44 are contracting based on 3-month annualized employment growth.

Momentum is measured as annualized log growth in employment over 3-month and 6-month windows. Acceleration compares the current 3-month pace to the pace six months ago. All data is seasonally adjusted.